Climate change: How much time do we have left?

Climate change threatens to alter the face of the Earth and negatively impact the lives of its inhabitants if countries around the world do not commit to rescue measures, including reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Human activities significantly contribute to the increase in emissions of five greenhouse gases that cause the greenhouse effect and consequently raise temperatures.

In the race against time to avoid the disasters predicted by scientists and activists in the fight against climate change, some studies have published the expected impacts for the coming decades, starting from 2030, which is just six years from now, and extending to 2050 and 2100.

So what might happen in our world if the countries concerned with reducing carbon emissions fail to adhere to the conditions for halting the course of climate change?

The expected consequences of climate change

• Rising temperatures and severe heat waves.
• Melting ice.
• Fires and floods.
• Threat to wildlife and marine life.
• Rising sea levels.
• Threat to food security through the disappearance of large agricultural areas.
• More poverty, unemployment, and displacement.
• The spread of epidemics caused by viruses transmitted by insects and animals.

Is it too late?

The United Nations stated that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by nearly half, not exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius by mid-2030, with the aim of mitigating global warming.

Scientists indicate that urgent actions to reduce carbon emissions can still slow down the phenomenon of global warming.

But the international organization added, pointing out that we are still far from achieving this goal in the required time.

We have already crossed this threshold, according to the European Climate Service recorded in February of this year.
The temperature from February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52 degrees Celsius, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

World leaders promised in 2015 to try to limit the long-term rise in temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is considered crucial to help avoid the most harmful impacts.

The Paris Agreement that year stipulated the commitment of all countries to combat climate change and reduce the level of greenhouse gases to levels that trees, soil, and oceans can naturally absorb.

195 countries out of the 197 member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change signed the agreement, with the absence of Syria and Nicaragua.

International efforts are focused on stabilizing the rise in temperatures at the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold and not exceeding it.

But last year, the meteorological records showed a breach of this commitment, with temperatures reaching 1.52 degrees Celsius.

But that doesn’t mean that this rate of temperature increase (1.5 degrees Celsius) will pass without consequences that we are already starting to witness.

We can refer back to the reports that addressed major fire incidents, significant floods, and heatwaves, and we will notice that they are increasing compared to previous years.

But surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold will bring about much harsher consequences.

For example, sea levels could rise by 10 cm at the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, and despite the severity of this situation, it could worsen further if temperatures continue to rise.

A study conducted at the University of Arizona in 2021 showed that millions of residents will face increasing floods by 2030, due to climate change and demographic shifts.

The scientists overseeing the study estimated that by 2030, 25 more countries will experience an increase in flooding, in addition to the 32 countries currently affected.

They estimated the possibility of around 50 million additional people being exposed to floods due to climate change.
What if the world fails to change the course of climate change?
Humans may be able to avert the danger if they adhere to the recommendations for combating climate change by 2050, which is about 26 years from now.

But what if countries fail in their commitments and humans do not limit their activities contributing to this deterioration?

We may witness the same results with an increase in the level, meaning that exceeding the temperature rise threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius and approaching 2 degrees Celsius will bring more natural disasters and geographical changes. It is expected to have repercussions on human health in the future.

The World Economic Forum website predicted that human losses would reach 14.5 million people and economic losses would amount to 12.5 billion dollars, in addition to an extra 1.1 billion dollars in costs on the healthcare system.
A report published by the site at the beginning of this year found that floods are the most dangerous challenge posed by climate change, and their occurrence could claim the lives of 8.5 million people by 2050.

After the floods, the report predicted that drought would pose the greatest danger, potentially causing the death of 3.5 million people within 26 years.

Among the consequences of drought are soil destruction and water scarcity, which will negatively affect food availability and have health implications due to its impact on personal hygiene.

The impact of human activity

The United Nations says that this long-term climate change is the result of human activity, primarily due to the extensive use of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—in homes, factories, and transportation.

When fossil fuels are burned, they release gases, mostly carbon dioxide (CO2), which trap additional energy in the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface, leading to global warming.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by about 50 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, when humans began burning large quantities of fossil fuels.

But what can individuals do about climate change?

Governments and companies must take the main actions for change, but individuals can also help through several supportive measures, such as:

• Reducing trips.
• Reducing energy consumption.
• Improving home insulation and increasing energy efficiency.
• Switching to electric cars or giving up cars altogether.
  ** Replacing gas central heating with electric systems such as heat pumps.
• Eat less red meat.

Which countries are most affected by climate change?

The United Nations Environment Programme indicates that developing countries are the most affected by the impacts of climate change.

Last year, the Iberdrola energy group’s website published a list of the ten countries most affected by the consequences of climate change, which are:

Chad, Somalia, Syria, the Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh.

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